S&P 500 3/25/2011

The market did bounce back after 3/16 and if you bought then and now you could have 50~60 points on SP500. where will the market go now? Not sure. I want to be bullish as the economy recovery is definitely there. And there are still money on the sidelines. However, the inflation, rate increases upcoming should impact the economy negatively as I see it. In addition, when the QE2 ends, will there be enough money pushing the market higher? 

Market summary - 3-16-2011

treasuries are gaining support once again as people rush out of the equity market. 

Tech is hit the hardest and you should also look forward to a stronger comeback when this correction is over.

It's really messy for the past days: "oil crisis" & nuclear threat. And the worst part is the uncertainty. You can read it from SP500 chart easily. It seems the topping process was confirmed.

http://mzexcel.blogspot.com/2011/02/market-summary-2-22-2011.html

 Then technicians will say it's just the due correction people have been waiting for. I agree with them: market rally too much too fast. So far it's about 100 points off the 1350 high. The downside is still there and I'm guessing maybe another 30 points off might yield a bottom. Well, it's just an optimistic guess. In case Japan's situation turns to the worst scenario this correction should last longer.

However, in my opinion, this really is the time to be bullish and watch your favorite stock and buy when the panic hit your stocks. 

Market summary - 2-22-2011

Oil increases significantly and 10 year bond yield goes back to below 3.5% level as the equity market sold off badly today. It's one of the days you see some of your mutual funds change over 4%. If this kind of fluctuation continues you might consider this a topping process based on my past observations. 

Next week

It should be exciting as Apple, Google, IBM, Ebay, F5 and bunch of banks report their earnings.

BTW, the financial sectors is still leading the way as JP Morgan reported positive development on banking sectors.

As the markets keeps going higher, the possibility of a pull back is increasing in my view. Here is SP500 chart with MACD indicators.

China's interest rate increases 25 basis point

People have been waiting for this move and China arranges it right after Christmas. Some sell-off before new year seems to be unavoidable.
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aZK9Y16l72zE&pos=1

a bad week for S&P500

But you really shouldn't feel surprised as the market has run up for over 2 months. I think a correction of few percentage point is not a big deal since the Feds will keep pumping the money into the market. Considering all the money at sidelines and the policy changes in Asia the market should still have more new highs to go when money comes back to US equity market. In addition, if you have QE2 then you can have QE3 as long as Ben is around. When the economy holds up until the unemployment rate goes down further, everything will be fine.

SPX from Stockcharts.com

Everything was down on Friday.

Cisco's management outlook for next quarter certainly triggered some fear about the economy. But hey, isn't that why Feds put out QE2? 

Still, be aware of the market condition and focus on individual stocks is my practice. 

Daily market summary

What an amazing run today; everything is up (except for dollar). I believe there are big part of short squeeze going on. QE2 starts to work right away: investors' confidence is up. Let's hope it can last long.

S&P 500 Candlesticks and MACD

I'm not a technical analysis (TA) guy although I sometimes do try to read the chart a bit. When I look at S&P500's daily candlesticks today I can't help notice the MACD indicator which recent pattern has great similarity to that of end of April.

Considering next week's Fed's decision on QE2, it is tricky for traders, I think. As quite some commentators put it, if the money amount is not "enough" market will sell off and if the QE money is too much market will view economy pessimistically it may still sell off. Well it's likely Feds will step up again. But as I see it it's better to stay sideline for now, I guess. I will pay close attention to tomorrow's job report and Friday's GDP estimate and first couple of days next week.

Of course, nobody can really predict the market so always think on your own:)